# 調査の結論（2026-11-14）

- AIインフラの導入・運用・保守、国内クラウドは、大きさと成長率を併せて見る候補。利益率の確認は別途必要。
- 蓄電所運用は計算CAGR45.3%だが、価格制度に収益が左右される。2026年1月の資料にある価格引き下げ案を、現在の確定制度と読み替えない。
- ハラール検査は計算CAGR21.7%だが、2035年でも市場は10億円。高利益の実証はない。
- エレベーター保守のJESは2026年3月期連結営業利益率19.1%。市場全体のCAGRではないが、利益の出ている企業例。
- 全候補を2026～2029年で揃えた予測は得られていない。異なる期間のCAGRを近未来の確定順位にしない。

最終確認：保存した一次資料の該当箇所と比較。MonotaROの単体／連結の誤記を修正。E02、E03、E06、E10、E11のRow表現は原文の表の引用ではなく、本文数値の抽出である。引用として再利用しない。以下は調査記録と原文抜粋。

# Japan growth industries research
Date: 2026-11-14. Status: three rounds finished; source windows differ from 2026–2029. Historical pilot status below is superseded. Limit: 3 rounds. Budget 9M agent /12M whole job; 65 tool calls.
## Coverage before searches
C1: 2026 onward three years; disclose original forecast windows, domestic scope, revenue versus volume, CAGR=(end/start)^(1/years)-1.
C2: macro demand and demographic constraints.
C3: screen 10-12 broad industries.
C4: overlooked niche candidates, including non-IT. Obscurity is a hypothesis.
C5: actual operating profits and margins, distinct from market growth.
C6: counterevidence, entry constraints and forecast uncertainty.
## Plan
Round 1: five-source pilot then broad screen. Round 2: coverage gaps only. Round 3: profit and counterevidence gaps only. No delegation or commits.
## Findings, pilot evidence only
### F1 Japan IT expenditure
Round: 1
Quote: In 2026, IDC forecasts the market will reach ¥28,418.9 billion, growing 3.3% year on year, with a 6.4% CAGR through 2029.
Source: IDC, Japan’s IT Dual-Engine Growth, https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/japans-it-dual-engine-growth-large-enterprises-strengthen-mid-sized-firms-surge-at-9-5/
Section path: article body; raw/003.txt
Published: date not verified; accessed 2026-11-14.
Quote status: complete sentence, fetched original.
AI: 国内IT支出の成長予測。6.4%の起点年はこの文だけでは確定できない。2026-29 CAGRとして転用不可。
Evidence type: research forecast, expenditure.
Limit: profitability absent; source window needs surrounding verification.
### F2 Linen rental
Round: 1
Quote: 2025年度の国内リネンサプライ市場規模（事業者売上高ベース）は、前年度比103.6％の5,388億円と5年連続でプラスとなった。
English translation: Japan’s linen supply market in FY2025, measured by operator revenue, reached ¥538.8 billion, 103.6% of the previous year, increasing for a fifth consecutive year.
Source: Yano, リネンサプライ市場に関する調査を実施（2026年）, https://www.yano.co.jp/press-release/show/press_id/4160
Section path: 調査結果の概要; raw/001.txt.
Published: date not verified; accessed 2026-11-14.
Quote status: complete sentence, fetched original.
AI: 前年比3.6%増。将来CAGRではない。非IT候補だが高成長という評価には弱い。
Evidence type: market research historical revenue estimate.
Limit: inflation and quantity not separated; profit absent.
### F3 AI infrastructure lead
Round: 1
Quote: Not extracted as a full source unit. See raw/004.txt.
Source: https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/7x-growth-in-just-three-years-japans-ai-infrastructure-will-surge-past-5-5-billion-in-2026-idc-reveals/
Section path: article body.
Published: not verified; accessed 2026-11-14.
Quote status: lead only, excluded from confirmed findings.
AI: Search and fetched excerpt suggest 2026 spending >$5.5B and five-year CAGR 13% through 2029. Parent must verify complete passage before use.
Evidence type: forecast lead.
Limit: no profit evidence; not standalone 2026-29 forecast.
## Coverage
|Item|Status|Evidence|
|---|---|---|
|C1|Partly covered|F1, F2 show why source windows matter|
|C2|Not researched|Macro missing|
|C3|Partly covered|IT and linen only; 10-12 screen not achieved|
|C4|Partly covered|Linen candidate only|
|C5|Not researched|No verified margins|
|C6|Not researched|No fully audited counterevidence|
## Source audit round 1
Two cited factual findings audited against fetched originals: F1 Supported for the quoted sentence only; F2 Supported. F3 Unverifiable as a complete quotation, retained as lead only. All interpretation clearly labelled. No market growth finding proves profits. This is not a completed full-note source audit.
## Rounds
Round 1: five-source download pilot; three pages captured, two failures. Pilot measurement 0.2M /3 measured steps; 25-source projection 0.6M. Meter coverage does not reflect all tool calls in this session. No budget stop occurred.
Round 2: NOT RUN. Wider gaps C2-C6 and 10-12 sector screening remain.
Round 3: NOT RUN. Profit/counterevidence work remains.
Status: INCOMPLETE HANDOFF. No evidence-based ranking or profitable-sector recommendation is established.
## Do-not-repeat list
Searches executed on web search:
- site.idc.com Japan 2025 2029 AI market CAGR
- site.yano.co.jp 2025 2030 国内 市場 リネンサプライ
- site.fcr.co.jp 2025 2030 市場 データセンター 蓄電池
- site.yano.co.jp press 2030 ペット 葬祭 リユース 市場 2025
- site.yano.co.jp press 2030 非破壊検査 害虫 駆除 市場
- site.fcr.co.jp 2026 データセンター 68189
Known fetched URLs: urls.txt and raw/index.tsv. METI failed connection; shortened Japanese IDC URL was erroneous and failed encoding, so replace it with exact search-result URL. Search results are leads, not evidence.
## Misread check
Do not call the above a 2026-29 forecast. Do not call linen fast-growing or proven profitable. No evidence establishes that a sector is overlooked. Government battery global-sales targets are not domestic forecasts.


# Continued evidence, 2026-11-14
Earlier pilot material above is preserved. This section supersedes its incomplete status. Exact 2026-2029 domestic CAGR remains unavailable; all windows below are explicitly different. Research decision: compare demand growth separately from demonstrated operator profitability.

## Round 1 broad screen, 12 categories
|Category|Result and admissibility|
|---|---|
|AI systems/software|25.6% 2024-29 appeared in issuer quotations of IDC; original not recovered. Lead only, exclude confirmed ranking.|
|AI infrastructure|Original IDC recovered, but April forecast differs from March. Use newer 2025-30 7.3%, keep scope caveat.|
|Public cloud|Original IDC 2025-30 17.6%, verified via independent web reader.|
|Data-center services|Fuji 2024-30 60% total increase, calculated CAGR 8.15%.|
|Cybersecurity|12% 2024-29 secondary lead; original not recovered. Exclude confirmed ranking.|
|Batteries/storage operation|Yano operator revenue 450 to 4,240 oku yen, FY2024-30; calculated 45.33%. Hardware market differs.|
|Automation/logistics|Fuji 7.4x lead rejected from domestic ranking: study includes Japanese manufacturers' overseas sales.|
|Healthcare/elder care|Care DX 2.3x FY2025-2040; calculated 5.71%. This is a long horizon, not a three-year prediction.|
|Reuse|2025 32,500 to 2030 40,000 oku yen, calculated 4.24%; older forecast reproduced in environment ministry material.|
|Inspection/maintenance|Domestic NDT FY2024 2,376 to FY2032 2,945 oku yen, calculated 2.72%.|
|Specialty food testing|Halal testing 7.1x 2025-2035, calculated 21.65%, very small starting market.|
|Linen and funeral services|Linen historical +3.6% is not CAGR; funeral FY2025-2034 calculated 0.167%, demographic growth does not imply high revenue growth.|

## Round 1 audit and gaps
Screen completed across 12 categories. Verified market categories require source units below. AI systems, cybersecurity remain leads, not confirmed facts. Wider gaps: specialist services, profitable operator examples. Deeper gaps: AI forecast vintage conflict; domestic versus export automation scope; exact 2026-29 endpoints. These drove round 2 only.

## Round 2 additions and gap review
New original evidence adds public cloud, AI infrastructure operation/maintenance services, halal testing, funeral counterexample. Named deeper reopening: raw/004.txt AI infrastructure was reread solely to establish its full forecast window and compare March against April. No repeated search query. Fuji logistics source read once and excluded after discovering overseas-sales scope. Remaining deeper gaps: profitable operators and cost/price constraints, researched in round 3.

## Evidence register
Each ID below is one audited claim unit. Quoted units are short source bullets/table cells; English translations accompany Japanese units. Calculations and implications are AI only. Access date for every source: 2026-11-14.

### E01
Quote: ■データセンターサービス 6兆8,189億円(60.0%増)
English translation: Data-center services: JPY6.8189 trillion, up 60%.
Source: https://www.fuji-keizai.co.jp/press/detail.html?cid=26050&la=ja&view_type=2
Section path: ― 2030年国内市場予測(2024年比) ―
Published: 2026-05-11
Quote status: complete bullet or labelled table cells, checked against saved original.
AI: AI only: 1.6**(1/6)-1 = 8.15%; implied 2024 base JPY4.2618tn. Not 2026-29 CAGR; overlapping cloud definitions prevent addition.
Evidence type: market forecast or issuer financial results.
Limit: original window applies; no sector-wide profit inference.
Capture: round1-raw/002.txt
Audit: Supported for stated unit; calculations separate.

### E02
Quote: Row: 蓄電所ビジネス市場 · Column: 2024年度 / 2030年度 · Value: 450億円 / 4,240億円
English translation: Storage operation market: FY2024 JPY45bn / FY2030 JPY424bn.
Source: https://www.yano.co.jp/press-release/show/press_id/4006
Section path: 1.市場概況 / 3.将来展望
Published: 2026-01-20
Quote status: complete bullet or labelled table cells, checked against saved original.
AI: AI only: (4240/450)**(1/6)-1 =45.33%. Operator revenue from electricity trading, not battery production. Source warns adjustment-market price cap expected to more than halve from FY2026; profitability is not established.
Evidence type: market forecast or issuer financial results.
Limit: original window applies; no sector-wide profit inference.
Capture: round2-raw/001.txt
Audit: Supported for stated unit; calculations separate.

### E03
Quote: Row: 非破壊検査日本市場 · Column: 2024年度 / 2032年度 · Value: 2,376億円 / 2,945億円
English translation: Japan NDT market: FY2024 JPY237.6bn / FY2032 JPY294.5bn.
Source: https://www.yano.co.jp/press-release/show/press_id/3841
Section path: 1.市場概況 / 3.将来展望
Published: 2025-07-01
Quote status: complete bullet or labelled table cells, checked against saved original.
AI: AI only: 2.72% CAGR. Equipment 1057 to1584 implies5.18%; contracted services1319 to1361 implies0.39%. Inspection demand is not uniformly high growth.
Evidence type: market forecast or issuer financial results.
Limit: original window applies; no sector-wide profit inference.
Capture: round1-raw/001.txt
Audit: Supported for stated unit; calculations separate.

### E04
Quote: ●介護DX関連 1,712億円(2.3倍)
English translation: Care DX: JPY171.2bn, 2.3 times 2025.
Source: https://www.fuji-keizai.co.jp/press/detail.html?cid=26085&view_type=2
Section path: ― 2040年国内市場予測(2025年比) ―
Published: 2026-08-06
Quote status: complete bullet or labelled table cells, checked against saved original.
AI: AI only: 5.71% over15 years. Care robots 2.5x implies6.30%; not near-term forecasts. Source identifies high deployment cost, reimbursement ceilings and customers financial distress.
Evidence type: market forecast or issuer financial results.
Limit: original window applies; no sector-wide profit inference.
Capture: round1-raw/003.txt
Audit: Supported for stated unit; calculations separate.

### E05
Quote: ●ハラール検査 10.0億円( 7.1倍)
English translation: Halal testing: JPY1bn, 7.1 times 2025.
Source: https://www.fuji-keizai.co.jp/press/detail.html?cid=26052&view_type=2
Section path: ― 2035年市場予測(2025年比) ―
Published: 2026-05-14
Quote status: complete bullet or labelled table cells, checked against saved original.
AI: AI only: 21.65% over10years; implied base JPY141mn. Small profitable niche hypothesis, no operator profit verified. Testing sample composition does not certify slaughter/production processes.
Evidence type: market forecast or issuer financial results.
Limit: original window applies; no sector-wide profit inference.
Capture: gap-raw/001.txt
Audit: Supported for stated unit; calculations separate.

### E06
Quote: Row: 国内葬祭ビジネス市場 · Column: 2025年 / 2034年 · Value: 1兆8,633億円 / 1兆8,915億円
English translation: Domestic funeral market: 2025 JPY1.8633tn /2034 JPY1.8915tn.
Source: https://www.yano.co.jp/press-release/show/press_id/3891
Section path: 3.将来展望
Published: accessed 2026-11-14
Quote status: complete bullet or labelled table cells, checked against saved original.
AI: AI only: 0.167% CAGR. Useful counterexample to simply ranking aging-related industries highly.
Evidence type: market forecast or issuer financial results.
Limit: original window applies; no sector-wide profit inference.
Capture: gap-raw/002.txt
Audit: Supported for stated unit; calculations separate.

### E07
Quote: Row: 売上高 / 営業利益 · Column: 2026年３月期 · Value: 57,601 / 11,010 百万円
English translation: FY March2026 revenue JPY57,601mn; operating profit11,010mn.
Source: https://data.swcms.net/file/jes24/dam/jcr%3Ad76c671e-9cad-4843-adc0-f09a33a76db8/140120260514533079.pdf
Section path: 2026年３月期の連結業績
Published: 2026-05-14
Quote status: complete bullet or labelled table cells, checked against saved original.
AI: AI only: JES margin19.11%. Elevator maintenance/modernization operator example; company growth includes share gains and is not sector CAGR or domestic-only profitability.
Evidence type: market forecast or issuer financial results.
Limit: original window applies; no sector-wide profit inference.
Capture: round3-raw/003.txt
Audit: Supported for stated unit; calculations separate.

### E08
Quote: Row: 売上高 / 営業利益 · Column: 2025年度実績 · Value: 83,797 / 5,829 百万円
English translation: FY2025 revenue JPY83,797mn; operating profit5,829mn.
Source: https://www.nittoc.co.jp/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/IR2026.05.11_04.pdf
Section path: p.11
Published: 2026-05-11
Quote status: complete bullet or labelled table cells, checked against saved original.
AI: AI only: Nittoc margin6.96%. Specialized civil engineering/repair example. Disaster restoration large contracts boosted results; next-year forecast revenue80500 and operating profit5500 is lower, not enduring high CAGR.
Evidence type: market forecast or issuer financial results.
Limit: original window applies; no sector-wide profit inference.
Capture: round3-raw/001.txt
Audit: Supported for stated unit; calculations separate.

### E09
Quote: Row: 売上高 / 営業利益 · Column: 2025年度実績 · Value: 322,814 / 47,379 百万円
English translation: FY2025 revenue JPY322,814mn; operating profit47,379mn.
Source: https://www2.jpx.co.jp/disc/30640/140120260507518072.pdf
Section path: 2025年度実績 / 2026年度計画
Published: 2026-05-07
Quote status: complete bullet or labelled table cells, checked against saved original.
AI: AI only: MonotaRO standalone margin14.68%. MRO procurement distribution example, not inspection market or proof all specialist services earn this margin.
Evidence type: market forecast or issuer financial results.
Limit: original window applies; no sector-wide profit inference.
Capture: round3-raw/002.txt
Audit: Supported for stated unit; calculations separate.

### E10 Public cloud
Quote: Row: 国内パブリッククラウドサービス市場 · Column: 2025年 / 2030年 / 2025年～2030年CAGR · Value: 4兆4,930億円 / 10兆962億円 / 17.6％
English translation: Domestic public cloud: 2025 JPY4.493tn; 2030 JPY10.0962tn; CAGR17.6%.
Source: https://www.idc.com/resource-center/press-releases/%E5%9B%BD%E5%86%85%E3%83%91%E3%83%96%E3%83%AA%E3%83%83%E3%82%AF%E3%82%AF%E3%83%A9%E3%82%A6%E3%83%89%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E4%BA%88%E6%B8%AC%E3%82%92idc%E3%81%8C/
Section path: 国内パブリッククラウドサービス市場予測をIDCが発表 ～高い成長を継続し、2030年に10兆円規模に ～
Published: 2026-03-12.
Quote status: labelled numerical fields extracted from complete paragraph; not a literal original table.
AI: Strong domestic forecast. Includes higher service prices as well as workloads; not volume growth or provider margin.
Evidence type: original IDC forecast.
Limit: 2025-30, not exact2026-29.
Capture: cloud-encoded-raw/001.txt. Unicode fetch failed once; encoded original succeeded, independent web reader also succeeded.
Audit: Supported.

### E11 AI infrastructure services
Quote: Row: Japanese AI-related IT infrastructure services market · Column: 2025 / 2030 / CAGR · Value: 95.7 billion yen / 232.0 billion yen / 19.4 percent.
Source: https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/sovereign-ai-infrastructure-japan-inference-shift/
Section path: main article body.
Published: 2026-04-08.
Quote status: labelled numerical fields extracted from complete paragraph, not literal original table.
AI: Deployment, operation and maintenance services form a more interesting specialist demand pool than simply buying GPUs. Adjacent AI infrastructure spending forecast is7.3% 2025-30; previous March13% through2029 uses a different window/vintage and must not be combined.
Evidence type: original IDC forecast.
Limit: No operator profit proven; no exact2026-29 endpoints.
Capture: gap-raw/003.txt.
Audit: Supported.

## Round 3 profit and counterevidence audit
E07-E09 are three profitable operator examples from primary issuer financial documents. Calculated operating margins: JES19.11%, Nittoc6.96%, MonotaRO14.68%. JES is consolidated. MonotaRO E09 is standalone (単体), not consolidated. These are company results, not sector averages. Nittoc's lower next-year outlook is material counterevidence. E02's price cap warning, E04's reimbursement/cost constraints, E05's certification limitation and JLL's power constraints limit any demand-to-profit inference.

## Final comparison, seven findings for parent
1. Storage operation has the highest verified calculated rate here,45.33% FY2024-30, but market revenue is trading income and price-cap risk is explicit (E02).
2. AI deployment/operation/maintenance services forecast19.4% 2025-30 offers a specialist-services hypothesis; no profitability claim (E11).
3. Public cloud17.6% 2025-30 is a large original domestic forecast; nominal price increases contribute (E10).
4. Halal testing21.65% 2025-35 is a genuinely small market candidate, reaching onlyJPY1bn; obscurity and profits unproven (E05).
5. Data-center services8.15% 2024-30 is strong but much less than a blanket AI boom label implies (E01). Do not add overlapping cloud spending.
6. Maintenance can yield profitable individual businesses without fast whole-market growth: JES19.11% margin; domestic NDT only2.72% CAGR and contracted inspections0.39% (E03,E07).
7. Aging alone is weak selection logic: care DX5.71% over15years versus funeral0.167% over9years; both differ from2026-29 (E04,E06).

## Final coverage and limits
C1 partial: exact2026-29 not recovered, comparable windows explicit. C2 qualitative covered by original demand/cost descriptions, no independent GDP/demographic forecast added. C3 completed12-category screen, two IT categories remain unverified leads. C4 specialty niches added, but no evidence of market neglect. C5 completed3 primary operator examples. C6 material counterevidence covered. No precise2026-29 ranking is established. Parent should chart differing windows with visible labels and separate company margins.

## Round completion and source-audit ledger
Round1 completed broad screen and audited scope; remaining gaps sent to round2.
Round2 completed wider/deeper original-source gaps; AI vintage conflict preserved, overseas automation excluded.
Round3 completed profit/counterevidence gaps; stop at requested3-round limit. Remaining gaps are expressly unresolved, not implicit zero growth.
Audit units E01-E11:11 rows, all Supported for narrowly stated numerical units against saved originals. Derived CAGRs/margins are AI calculations, not source quotations. Original pilot F1-F3 remain historical working records and must not override updated units. This continuation's audit is a finding-unit audit; full mechanical sentence-by-sentence source-audit of parent's eventual prose remains parent's responsibility.

## Do-not-repeat additions
All URLs in round1-urls.txt, round2-urls.txt, round3-urls.txt, gap-urls.txt, cloud-url-encoded.txt and corresponding raw/index.tsv files are opened sources. Web search queries from this continuation are preserved in tool history; no exact query was repeated. Named deeper reopening only: original raw/004 AI forecast context/vintage comparison. Direct JES fetch failures recovered via web original and issuer PDF, not treated as unsupported. Do not rerun broad searches; remaining useful gaps are original AI systems/security releases and exact2026-29 annual series.

## Cost and execution disclosure
Continuation used 33 underlying tool calls through this write (functions wrappers excluded; each shell/web/poll counted). No subagents, commits, signed-in access or external writes. Meter since marker reported0.3M/6steps at first and later checkpoints; meter appears not to capture all continuation calls. Therefore this is not a reliable complete bill. Budget8M and65calls were not reached. Phase-by-phase measurements were not all captured; this is a process limitation, not budget exhaustion.

Correction: tool-call count above is approximate; continuation final count is 35 underlying calls including final measurement poll and this record. No automatic full tool log was exported. Round labels describe evidence assignment; some gap evidence was fetched before the round1 write-up was persisted. Original quotations F1 may exceed25 words; parent should use E units and paraphrases in final prose.